Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made his first public appearance since a , inspecting troops in Ukraine in a video released Monday aimed at projecting a sense of order after the country鈥檚 most serious political crisis in decades.
But about his fate, that of leader and his private army, the impact on the war in Ukraine, and even the political future of President Vladimir Putin.
A feud between leader Prigozhin and Russia鈥檚 military brass that has festered throughout the war erupted into a mutiny that saw the mercenaries leave Ukraine to seize a military headquarters in a southern Russian city and roll seemingly unopposed for hundreds of miles toward Moscow, before turning around after less than 24 hours on Saturday.
The Kremlin said it had made a deal that Prigozhin will and receive an amnesty, along with his soldiers. There was no confirmation of his whereabouts Monday, although a popular Russian news channel on Telegram reported he was seen at a hotel in the Belarusian capital, Minsk.
Russian media reported a criminal probe against Prigozhin continued, and some lawmakers called for his head.
In a return to at least superficial normality, Moscow鈥檚 mayor announced an end to the 鈥渃ounterterrorism regime鈥� imposed on the capital Saturday, when troops and armored vehicles set up checkpoints on the outskirts and authorities tore up roads leading into the city.
The Defense Ministry video of Shoigu came as Russian media speculated that he and other military leaders have lost Putin鈥檚 confidence and could be replaced.
Shoigu was shown in a helicopter and then meeting with officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine. The video was widely broadcast on Russian media, including state-controlled television. It was unclear when it was shot.
General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov, also a main target of Prigozhin鈥檚 ire, has not appeared in public.
It was unclear what would ultimately happen to Prigozhin and his forces under the deal purportedly brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Though the mutiny was brief, it was not bloodless. Russian media reported that several military helicopters and a military communications plane were shot down by Wagner forces, killing at least 15. The Defense Ministry has not commented. Prigozhin denied there were any casualties on his side, but media reports indicated the airstrikes hit some Wagner vehicles, and messaging app channels featured images of the damage.
The U.S. had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time, suggesting the revolt was planned. That conflicts with Prigozhin鈥檚 claim his rebellion was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military, which he said killed a large number of his men. The Defense Ministry denied it.
Russia鈥檚 RIA Novosti state news agency cited unidentified sources in the Prosecutor General鈥檚 office as saying the criminal case against Prigozhin hasn鈥檛 been closed, despite earlier Kremlin statements. The Interfax news agency carried a similar report.
Should the case continue, Prigozhin鈥檚 presence in Belarus 鈥� a staunch Kremlin ally 鈥� would offer little protection against arrest and extradition.
It was unclear what resources Prigozhin has to draw on, and how much of his substantial wealth he can access. Police searching his St. Petersburg office on the day of the rebellion found 4 billion rubles ($48 million) in trucks outside the building, according to Russian media reports confirmed by the Wagner boss. He claimed the money was intended to pay his soldiers鈥� families.
Several Russian lawmakers called for tight regulations of private military companies under a new law set to be considered 鈥� and some argued that Prigozhin must be punished.
Andrei Gurulev, a retired general and current lawmaker who has rowed with the mercenary leader, said Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin, a former military officer who runs Wagner, deserve 鈥渁 bullet in the head.鈥�
鈥淚 firmly believe that traitors in wartime must be executed,鈥� he said.
Prigozhin appeared nonchalant in some of the last video taken during the rebellion. As a convoy carrying him in an SUV drove out of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don after its brief occupation Saturday, he was asked how he viewed the result of his revolt, according to footage posted on Russian social media.
鈥淚t鈥檚 normal, we have cheered everyone up,鈥� the mercenary chief responded.
Before the uprising, Prigozhin had with expletive-ridden insults for months, attacking them for failing to provide his troops with enough ammunition during the fight for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, the war鈥檚 longest and bloodiest battle.
Prigozhin鈥檚 rift with the military dates back for years, to Russia鈥檚 intervention in Syria, where Wagner forces also were active.
Putin stood back from the feud and Shoigu and Gerasimov remained mum, possibly reflecting uncertainty about the president鈥檚 support. Observers said that by failing to end the feud, Putin had encouraged Prigozhin to raise the stakes dramatically.
Some analysts saw Prigozhin鈥檚 revolt as a desperate move to save Wagner from being dismantled after an order that all private military companies sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1.
Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said on Twitter that Prigozhin鈥檚 mutiny 鈥渨asn鈥檛 a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin,鈥� but a desperate move amid his escalating rift with Russia鈥檚 military leadership.
While Prigozhin could get out of crisis alive, he doesn鈥檛 have a political future in Russia under Putin, Stanovaya said.
Alex Younger, former head of Britain鈥檚 MI6 intelligence agency, said it appeared that 鈥渘either side was in control鈥� during the rebellion.
He told the BBC that Prigozhin 鈥渄idn鈥檛 have a plan, he didn鈥檛 have enough people鈥� to succeed, while Putin looked indecisive, first vowing to crush the rebels, then striking a deal.
鈥淓veryone comes out of this weaker,鈥� Younger said.
Russian media and commentators speculated that Shoigu could be replaced, but that Putin, who avoids making decisions under pressure, would likely wait before announcing a shakeup.
Putin held calls Monday with the leaders of Iran and Qatar, the Kremlin said, and addressed a forum of youth engineers in a pre-recorded video message that contained no mention of the mutiny.
It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine, where Western officials say Russia鈥檚 troops suffer low morale. Wagner鈥檚 forces were key to Russia鈥檚 only land victory in months, in Bakhmut.
The U.K. Ministry of Defense said Monday that Ukraine had 鈥済ained impetus鈥� in , making progress north and south of the town.
U.S. President Joe Biden and leaders of several of Ukraine鈥檚 European allies discussed events in Russia over the weekend, but Western officials have been muted in their public comments.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told broadcaster RT that U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy contacted Russian representatives Saturday to stress that the U.S. was not involved in the mutiny and considered it an internal Russian matter. There was no immediate confirmation from the U.S., although Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that U.S. officials had 鈥渆ngaged鈥� with Russia to stress the importance of protecting U.S. citizens and interests.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that 鈥渢he events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter.鈥� Max Blain, spokesman for U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, said 鈥渋ssues of regime in Russia are for Russia to resolve, first and foremost.鈥�
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, speaking to reporters before a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, said the revolt showed that the war is 鈥渃racking Russia鈥檚 political system.鈥�
鈥淭he monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is biting him now,鈥� Borrell said. 鈥淭he monster is acting against his creator.鈥�
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