The provincial economy stands to have 124,000 fewer jobs and lose out on $69 billion in combined gross domestic product if threatened American tariffs of 25 per cent extend over the next three years. 

These figures appear in the presentation that accompanied Thursday's (Jan. 16) appearance of B.C. Premier David Eby and B.C. Finance Minister Brenda Bailey in Vancouver.

Experts within Bailey's ministry arrived at these preliminary figures by comparing two scenarios: one sees B.C.'s economy without the tariffs and one with the tariffs over the duration of Trump's presidency, with Canada retaliating. 

Bailey, who described Trump's tariffs as "unprecedented," said this assessment should "be interpreted as one of many possibilities, as there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the exact nature" of the proposed policies. 

While B.C.'s open economy relies less than other Canadian jurisdictions on trade with the United States, the U.S. remains B.C.'s largest trading partner with more than 50 per cent of exports going to the United States.

"The proposed tariffs would have significant impacts to B.C.'s economy," she said. 

Potential impacts include lower corporate profits of somewhere between $3.6 billion and $6.1 billion annually, an unemployment rate of 6.7 per cent in 2025 and 7.1 per cent in 2026 and lower provincial revenues ranging $1.6 billion to $2.5 billion annually.

Eby used the occasion to prepare British Columbians for what might lay ahead.

"This is a direct economic threat to B.C. families," he said. 

Eby said government is not sharing these figures to scare British Columbians, "but to reassure you that we understand the gravity of the threat to you and your family." 

Government, he added, is focused and ready to respond to the tariffs, which he described as "a declaration of economic war." 

More to come.