After the 2020 presidential election, thousands of Donald Trump鈥檚 most fervent supporters heeded his call to join a protest of his defeat.
Following Trump鈥檚 lies about a stolen election, hundreds of them under the banners of the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and other extremist groups and movements.
Many of those far-right networks have dissolved, splintered or receded from public view since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack. But the specter of election-related chaos hasn鈥檛 vanished with them. Political violence remains a persistent threat heading into the Nov. 5 election, experts warn.
Election officials have been inundated with , and the prospect of 鈥� 鈥� organizations wreaking havoc. The FBI was investigating on Monday after inside drop boxes in Portland, Oregon, and in nearby Vancouver, Washington.
Trump has used social media to promote that have become mainstream features of Republican politics. Many, himself, have tried to recast Capitol rioters as 1776-style patriots and political prisoners. Trump also has vowed to use the military to go after
Four years ago, most of the Trump supporters in the mob had no criminal record or any group affiliations beyond their shared allegiance to a president who exhorted them to That helps explain why it can be difficult for authorities to identify and ward off threats.
鈥淚t only takes one person to cause a lot of damage,鈥� said American University professor Kurt Braddock, who studies extremism.
Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the , said the extremists she monitors don鈥檛 seem to be fixated on this year鈥檚 election 鈥� at least in their public chatter online. Many likely learned a lesson from the Capitol riot defendants who flooded social media with self-incriminating posts before, during and after the siege.
鈥淲e have no idea if there鈥檚 something going on in encrypted chats,鈥� she added.
During this election cycle, Trump and his allies have stirred up anti-LGBTQ and anti-immigrant discourse in a way that galvanizes extremists, experts say. After Jan. 6, the Proud Boys staged protests at . More recently, Springfield, Ohio, was overwhelmed with hoax bomb threats after Trump and running mate JD Vance amplified about Haitian immigrants in the city.
All manner of far-right conspiracy theories are spreading virtually unchecked on , including a firehose of lies about the federal government鈥檚 response to , a swing state.
Trump and his allies often use his rallies as a platform for spewing racism and xenophobia, including one Sunday at that drew comparisons to . Vice President Kamala Harris said she believes Trump is a fascist after his former chief of staff, John Kelly, said the former president while in office.
Trump was during one of against him this year. He has accused Democrats of fostering a volatile political climate by accusing him of being a threat to democracy.
Beirich said it could be difficult for authorities to curb election-related threats 鈥渂ecause it can happen all over the country.鈥� She and other experts fear extremists will try to disrupt ballot counting, possibly in battleground states.
鈥淚t feels a bit like a calm before the storm,鈥� she said.
Extremism experts are hardly alone in their fears: About 4 in 10 registered voters say they are 鈥渆xtremely鈥� or 鈥渧ery鈥� concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results of next month鈥檚 election, according to conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Of the more than 1,500 defendants charged in the Jan. 6 attack, more than 200 have been linked to extremist groups or movements by federal authorities, according to .
That includes approximately 80 leaders, members or associates of the far-right Proud Boys and over 30 defendants linked to the anti-government Oath Keepers. Other groups, including the , have had smaller numbers of followers charged in federal court.
Four years ago, Trump told the Proud Boys to during his first debate against Democrat Joe Biden. Group leaders celebrated Trump鈥檚 shout-out and eagerly joined the fray when Trump invited supporters to Washington for his 鈥淪top the Steal鈥� rally.
Today, some of the and are serving prison terms of up to for violent plots to stop the peaceful transfer of presidential power from Trump to Biden.
Imprisoning the groups鈥� national leaders left a void. For the Proud Boys, it was partially filled by local chapters that consider themselves autonomous and tend to promote more extreme ideologies, said , a senior research analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which tracks online hate.
鈥淭heir organizational capabilities are greatly diminished from where they were in 2020,鈥� Holt said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 always the possibility that, in a post-election period, these groups will all of a sudden find the motivation to mobilize and start showing up at events. But they鈥檝e been pretty docile this year.鈥�
The Oath Keepers, which the Yale Law School-educated founded in 2009, has withered since his arrest and incarceration.
鈥淚t was his baby, and no one has really stepped up to fill his void,鈥� Holt said.
Dozens of Capitol rioters were followers of the anti-government or belonged to militia groups with names like the , the and the . The government鈥檚 response to Jan. 6 seems to have placed a 鈥渉uge damper鈥� on militias, Beirich said.
鈥淭hey don鈥檛 disappear,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hey might pop up somewhere else, but I have to say: Militias in the last year or so have been relatively inactive compared to earlier eras.鈥�
Many other Jan. 6 rioters were inspired by , which centered on the baseless belief that Trump was secretly fighting a Satan-worshipping, child sex trafficking cabal of prominent Democrats and Hollywood elites. The self-described remains one of the most recognizable figures from the riot.
, author of 鈥淭he Storm Is Upon Us: How QAnon Became a Movement, Cult, and Conspiracy Theory of Everything,鈥� said the QAnon movement has evolved beyond its bizarre web of 鈥渞iddles and codes.鈥�
Twitter, Facebook and YouTube after Jan. 6, driving believers to platforms like Telegram or Trump鈥檚 Truth Social. Rothschild said many of them flocked back to Twitter, now called X, after Elon Musk bought it. He believes QAnon adherents remain 鈥渆xtremely dangerous.鈥�
鈥淭hey鈥檝e had four years to build up their anger and grievance,鈥� he said.
