Nearly two million voters in British Columbia cast their ballots this past Saturday, and the outcome has yet to be decided. Palestine is part of the reason why.

With a few ridings too close to call, all three outcomes for BC.’s government are still possible: a B.C. NDP-B.C. Green coalition (most likely), a B.C. Conservative majority (less likely), and a B.C. NDP majority (least likely).

The most contested ridings, including ÐÔÊӽ紫ý City Centre, are awaiting a recount of ballots already cast. The final count of mail-in ballots here and in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý-Guildford could potentially shift the political landscape of the province.

The current situation reflects a pivotal moment, particularly in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý, where the B.C. Conservatives made significant inroads. If the B.C. Conservatives win ÐÔÊӽ紫ý City Centre and the Juan de Fuca-Malahat ridings (the two ridings undergoing automatic recounts this weekend), they could form a majority government.

The shift in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý: A Conservative upset

For years, ÐÔÊӽ紫ý has been a stronghold for the B.C. NDP, but the 2024 election has marked a significant swing towards the B.C. Conservatives. Honveer Singh Randhawa’s narrow victory over Garry Begg in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý-Guildford by just 103 votes is emblematic of this shift. Similarly, in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý City Centre, the race between the NDP’s Amna Shah and Conservative candidate Zeeshan Wahla has come down to just 95 votes, triggering an automatic recount.

This shift away from the B.C. NDP in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý suggests that the B.C. Conservatives have successfully capitalized on voter dissatisfaction regarding issues like housing affordability, education, and health care.

However, an overlooked factor in the election is the impact of the Palestinian issue and how it played out in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý’s large Muslim community.

The Palestine vote in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý

ÐÔÊӽ紫ý is home to 50,000 to 60,000 Muslims, many of whom have been vocal about the provincial government’s stance on Palestine. Since Oct.  7, 2023, Premier David Eby has repeatedly mourned the deaths of Israelis, while ignoring the genocide committed by Israel in Gaza. This double standard has alienated a number of ÐÔÊӽ紫ý’s voters. In ÐÔÊӽ紫ý City Centre and ÐÔÊӽ紫ý-Guildford, two independent candidates — the author (Saeed Naguib) and Kabir Qurban — ran on pro-Palestinian platforms.

The two garnered 155 and 364 votes, respectively. While these numbers may seem small, they could have been decisive in these tight races.

The NDP’s handling of Palestine, particularly in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý, played a crucial role in these razor-thin margins. While some Muslim voters chose to vote NDP because they perceived the B.C. Conservatives as even more hostile to Palestinian rights, many refused to vote for the NDP due to its hypocrisy on the issue.

Premier Eby’s failure to engage with pro-Palestine advocates on critical issues such as education and policing alienated significant portions of the electorate.

For instance, when the Falastini Advocates for Liberation (FAL) met with the ÐÔÊӽ紫ý B.C. NDP caucus earlier this year to discuss incorporating the history of the Nakba into the B.C. curriculum, they were ultimately told that it would not happen. This decision was just one of many actions that reflected a broader hypocrisy when it came to the B.C. NDP’s stance on Israel and Palestine.

While Premier David Eby condemned the loss of Israeli lives and announced the inclusion of the history of the Holocaust into B.C.’s curriculum, his silence on the genocide in Gaza sent a clear message to the Muslim community: Israeli lives mattered, but Palestinian lives did not.

This double standard deeply eroded the B.C. NDP’s support among Muslim voters in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý, who felt their concerns were continually dismissed.

Had the NDP taken a more principled and fair stance on Palestine, it is likely that many of the 519 votes cast for Naguib and Qurban could have gone to NDP candidates in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý. In ÐÔÊӽ紫ý-Guildford, the 364 votes for Qurban could have easily pushed Garry Begg over the top, securing his victory over Randhawa.

In ÐÔÊӽ紫ý City Centre, Amna Shah’s current (and unfinalized) 95-vote lead would have likely risen to a decisive 250 lead had those votes not gone to Naguib.

Lessons for the NDP and the future of Palestine advocacy

The outcome of this election should serve as a wake-up call for the B.C. NDP. Justice for Palestine is not just a federal issue — it has provincial implications, particularly in education and policing.

The B.C. NDP’s unwillingness to engage meaningfully with pro-Palestinian advocates cost them votes in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý and could ultimately cost them their majority government.

If the NDP wants to regain the trust of ÐÔÊӽ紫ý’s Muslim voters and their allies, they will need to adopt policies that reflect fairness and justice for Palestinians.

For example, the NDP could take cues from the B.C. Green Party, which has called for the inclusion of the Nakba in the curriculum. The B.C. Teachers’ Federation’s vote in favour of this motion in March 2024 shows there is growing support for this within the province.

Additionally, the NDP could make efforts to divest public funds from companies involved in Israel’s occupation, as required under international law following the International Court of Justice’s landmark advisory opinion on July 7, 2024. A more even-handed approach to pro-Palestinian activism — stopping the smearing of activists and acknowledging the human toll on Palestinians — would go a long way in rebuilding the NDP’s relationship with Muslim voters.

The unfolding political Impact of Palestine

As the election results continue to hang in the balance, one thing is clear: Palestine matters to a significant portion of the B.C. electorate, especially in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý.

The political fallout from Israel’s ongoing actions in Gaza is just beginning to surface, and it will continue to shape electoral outcomes, both provincially and federally. Moving forward, political parties, especially the NDP, must recognize that Palestinian human rights are a pivotal issue for many voters.

The 519 votes cast for two candidates may seem small, but they represent a growing movement that demands a more principled and just stance from the provincial government. If the NDP does not course-correct, they risk further alienating a key segment of their base in future elections.

Saeed Naguib ran as an independent candidate in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý City Centre in the B.C. election.