鈥淟ooking at this year's salmon return, relative to the last 15 years鈥� I would call this year certainly average to above average,鈥� said Greg Taylor, senior fisheries advisor to Watershed Watch Salmon Society. 

As some B.C. salmon hatcheries are experiencing their , experts across the province are welcoming the refreshing news. 

鈥淲e've seen good returns across species and populations,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淥n the east coast of Vancouver Island, in most cases, we鈥檙e seeing excellent chum returns and very good coho returns,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淥n the west coast, we saw excellent sockeye returns.鈥�

Another promising sign, noted Taylor, is the reappearance of steelhead, a member of the salmonid family, previously thought to be on the brink of collapse in numerous watersheds.

Peter McCully, a biologist and longtime volunteer with the Goldstream Hatchery in Greater Victoria shared his enthusiasm as this year鈥檚 numbers are above all prior expectations. 

鈥淚n the last few years, [chum salmon] have been suffering from changing ocean conditions so we were sort of apprehensive about how the run would look this year,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut as it turns out the return has exceeded DFO鈥檚 target.鈥�

Originally hoping to reach the threshold of 15,000 chum, McCully reported that upwards of 20,000 returned to the river this year. Additionally, the hatchery harvested up to 1,800 coho, which McCully labelled as a 鈥渞eally significant鈥� number.

鈥淭his is one of the best returns that there's been for the last 20 years I would suggest,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e by no means record returns, but they're better than what we had anticipated.鈥�

When asked about the reasons behind this year's spawning numbers across the province, experts remain puzzled by the increase.

鈥淲e still don't quite understand what the changes are, but the [conditions are] very good and very suited for salmon,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淲e're seeing some real changes in the Salish Sea where large numbers of chinooks鈥� and cohos are migrating through at very high numbers.鈥�

At this time, without the perspective of history, McCully and Taylor noted that any conclusions are purely speculative. 

鈥淲ith salmon, no one has the defining answer,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淏ased on my observations鈥� we saw good returns coastwide. We've also seen a change in the northeast Pacific where鈥� the temperatures in the waters have become more beneficial to our salmon.鈥� 

Potential theories range widely, including a recent switch in climate, , which both have global impacts on weather and the ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest. 

Unlike El Nino events, which bring warmer waters, unfavourable to salmonids, La Nina climate patterns bring cooler, nutrient-rich waters to the West Coast, from which salmon species benefit. 

Another theory that may have benefited B.C.鈥檚 salmon involves a recent decline in pink salmon populations from Alaskan hatcheries and chum populations from Japanese hatcheries in the Pacific this year, explained Taylor.

鈥淪cientists have shown how there is a relationship between the hatchery abundance 鈥� how much fish we put into the ocean 鈥� and how that impacts B.C. salmon runs,鈥� he said. 鈥淸If you] put out billions of salmon from hatcheries they just out-compete wild salmon stocks.鈥�

鈥淭his year, for whatever reason, they weren't there and I think our fish saw the benefit of the relative absence of hatchery fish.鈥�

As Taylor reiterated, the exact justification behind this year鈥檚 numbers remains unclear, as what happens in the ocean is still unknown.

鈥淚t could have been just the cooler temperatures in the Bering Sea, or it could have been [less] predators. We just don't understand,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淚n the fisheries, we call the Pacific Ocean the 鈥榖lack box鈥� because we don't have a good idea of what happens out there.鈥�

Enthusiasm on hold

Although what happens out at sea remains a mystery, Taylor stressed that some of the greatest threats to salmon are man-made.

鈥淲e're seeing good returns, but what we saw this summer was climate change in action,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淚f I compared it to when I began my career, I would classify them as poor and if I was to them to pre-contact, they're abysmal.

Concerned about , which dried up numerous vital streams across the province, experts feared for this year鈥檚 spawning season. Fortunately, fall rains arrived on time, and rivers across B.C. swelled just in time for the salmon鈥檚 final journey.

If B.C. experiences similar droughts this summer, it could be 鈥渇atal鈥� for coho, chinook, and sockeye, which reside in lakes and rivers for up to a year after hatching before migrating to the ocean, explained Taylor. 

鈥淭he marine environment's been terrific for salmon, but hopefully, they get a decent summer next year and the progeny do well next year,鈥� said Taylor. 鈥淏ut if we have another drought next year, a lot of the benefits will be decimated.鈥�

Drying streams can be deadly for juvenile salmon, exposing them to high temperatures, lack of water, and predators. 

Other man-made threats, like logging, mining, extensive urban development and other human activities near spawning streams can have deleterious impacts on fish populations, added Taylor. 

Even once out at sea, these silvery fish are not entirely out of harm's way. Noting that salmon are among the few species on Earth reliant on both freshwater and ocean environments, this makes them particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.

Events like an upcoming El Nino pattern or large marine heatwaves, such as 鈥淭he Blob鈥� in the Pacific Northwest from 2013 to 2016, which raised ocean temperatures by up to 3.9 C in some areas, all pose a serious risk to both current and future salmon populations. 

Though the impact of climate change on salmon is unclear, said Taylor, any blow dealt to this keystone species could have devastating ripple effects on the West Coast food chain, affecting resident killer whales, bears, eagles, wolves, and more.

Hopeful signs

Despite painting a grim picture of B.C. salmon's potential future, Taylor remains optimistic. After being in fisheries since the '80s, and witnessing firsthand the impact of climate change on the marine environment, the fisheries expert argues that it鈥檚 not too late to reverse some ongoing worrying trends. 

Although limiting carbon emissions is the best way to mitigate global warming, Taylor said that smaller efforts, such as adapting and restoring local streams to make them more salmon-friendly, would also be of great help. Additionally, rethinking urban expansion and its impact on local streams and salmon populations could also be beneficial, he noted

Before his conservation work, Taylor led a First Nations' gillnet fleet for years and has seen how reconciliation efforts have reshaped the province鈥檚 fisheries over time. As DFO hands more responsibility for salmon management to First Nations, Taylor believes this partnership could be key to safeguarding the salmon's future.

鈥淔irst Nations are stepping up and they bring a different ethic to it,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t's a marriage between good science, good management, and a different belief system when it comes to [salmon] management. That's what gives me more hope in the future.鈥�