As the Canada Post strike drags into a fourth week, experts say there鈥檚 growing pressure on the government to act as the business community鈥檚 calls for intervention get louder.
So far Ottawa has said it won鈥檛 step in, despite forcing people back to work in other recent high-profile labour disputes. But it鈥檚 getting harder for it to stay on the sidelines, said Barry Eidlin, an associate professor of sociology at McGill University.
鈥淭he pressure is certainly mounting on them to bring an end to the strike,鈥 said Eidlin.
The government recently intervened in major disputes in ports and rail by directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board to order binding arbitration.
But Eidlin said one key difference with this dispute is that while the Canada Post strike is certainly top of mind for many Canadians especially business owners, it鈥檚 not nearly as economically damaging as prolonged stoppages at ports and railways would have been.
In decades past, a Canada Post strike would have had much more widespread consequences 鈥 particularly when most people received their pay via cheques, said Ian Lee, an associate professor at Carleton University鈥檚 Sprott School of Business.
鈥淚n the 鈥60s through the 鈥90s, the post office was absolutely essential,鈥 said Lee, who has studied Canada Post for several decades and previously worked at the Crown corporation.
Those who do rely on it, though, are 鈥渧ery, very dependent鈥 on it, he said.
Canada Post and the union representing more than 55,000 striking workers appeared closer to resuming negotiations Friday as the strike entered its fourth week.
Federal mediation was put on hold last week due to the sides being too far apart. This week the Canadian Union of Postal Workers said it sent new counter-proposals to the mediator in the hopes talks can resume, which Canada Post said it鈥檚 reviewing.
Calls for government intervention have been mounting from the business community, with groups like the Retail Council of Canada saying the strike is harming businesses more each day.
The government鈥檚 intervention in the port and rail disputes was controversial, and the unions involved in those disputes launched legal challenges in the wake of the government鈥檚 intervention.
The government may be feeling 鈥渟ome remorse鈥 about its use of this tool, said Eidlin, 鈥渁nd so they don鈥檛 want to just make this the default pattern.鈥
Eidlin and others have warned that Ottawa鈥檚 use of section 107 set a dangerous precedent that undermined collective bargaining.
Another thing that differentiates this strike from the port and rail disputes is that Canada Post itself has not joined in on the calls for intervention, noted Eidlin. In the rail and port disputes, the employers were among the parties asking Ottawa to step in.
Eidlin and Lee think that鈥檚 because Canada Post doesn鈥檛 like its odds for binding arbitration.
鈥淚 think that they are assessing that it is unlikely that they will be able to get a favourable judgment in arbitration,鈥 Eidlin said, particularly when it comes to one of the biggest sticking points in negotiations so far: weekend delivery.
Canada Post has pitched weekend delivery as a way to increase its revenue and be more competitive. It says it wants to staff the weekend shifts with a mix of new permanent part-time positions and some full-time. But the union has accused Canada Post of trying to increase its part-time labour force instead of creating good full-time jobs.
Eidlin characterizes Canada Post鈥檚 pitch for weekend delivery as an attempt to create a second, lower tier of employment, and he thinks an arbitrator would be unlikely to grant it 鈥済iven the corrosive effect it would have on the workforce.鈥
Lee said the issue is existential for both Canada Post and the union. The Crown corporation needs to change or continue circling the drain, but the union doesn鈥檛 want to give up its hard-fought gains, he said.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no common ground. You can鈥檛 square the circle on this one,鈥 he said.
Over the years, government intervention in major labour disputes has been relatively common, said Eidlin, usually through back-to-work legislation. This is part of why business leaders are so quick to call for it, he said.
But there鈥檚 also pressure on Canada Post and the union, he added 鈥 and it seems to be working.
鈥淲e are seeing some movement at the negotiating table, which is exactly 鈥 how these negotiations are supposed to work,鈥 he said.
If the two sides reached an agreement without intervention, it would set a new and healthier precedent, Eidlin said.
But Lee thinks the government could soon step in soon if the two sides don鈥檛 move closer together.
鈥淭hey鈥檒l probably cave in, because they鈥檙e a minority government and they鈥檙e way down in the polls,鈥 he said.