Monday, June 3 may go down as one of the rare days where a volcanic change affected B.C. provincial politics.

Such days seem to come along every 10 to 20 years. And like volcanoes, the change is both sudden and gradual, as well as unalterable — until the next eruption. 

In 1941, it was the formation of a coalition government to keep the CCF (forerunner of the NDP) away from power, after no party gained a majority of seats. In 1952, it was the collapse of the 11-year coalition and miraculous ascendancy of Social Credit — and the beginning of Premier W.A.C. Bennett’s 20 years in power. 

In 1972, new, younger leaders led to the rise of the Liberal and Conservative parties, which resulted in B.C.’s first NDP government. Most MLAs from the two parties soon went to Social Credit, which re-established a coalition and won the 1975 election. In 1991, it was the BC Liberals coming from nowhere and gaining 17 seats — which led to the demise of Social Credit. The 2017 election led to the NDP forming a minority government with backing from three Green MLAs. 

ÐÔÊӽ紫ý South MLA Elenore Sturko’s decision to cross the floor from the BC United Party to the BC Conservatives could turn out to be another monumental shift.

It was completely unexpected, it was very significant given her prominence, and it emphasizes the importance of the 10 ÐÔÊӽ紫ý seats in the October provincial election. Many of her allies in the LGBTQ community couldn’t believe it, but many other people are taking a second look at the BC Conservatives. 

Sturko was the last BC Liberal to win a seat in Victoria — easily winning a byelection in 2022. She quickly emerged as a powerful critic on issues such as decriminalization of hard drugs, public safety and chaos on the streets. As a former ÐÔÊӽ紫ý RCMP officer, her experience showed. 

She also showed a willingness to take on a powerful premier in David Eby, who, unlike his predecessor John Horgan, has gathered virtually all of the power of the provincial government into his office. Eby has been widely expected to easily win the October election, with favourable opinion polls and a badly split opposition.

Sturko seems far more aware of issues of the most concern to voters, and why so many seem ready to vote BC Conservative. This is despite non-stop attacks on the party and leader John Rustad from both Eby and BC United leader Kevin Falcon. 

She will be running in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý-Cloverdale against incumbent Mike Starchuk of the NDP and Claudine Storness-Bliss of BC United. This is Falcon’s old seat. While the demographics have changed a lot since Falcon last represented the area, the mood for change among people from many differing backgrounds continues to grow. 

Sturko lambasted Falcon for failing to come up with an acceptable plan so the BC United and BC Conservatives could work together to defeat the NDP. She has far more credibility with the public than her former leader does. 

The political mood in B.C. seems very much like early 1952. The coalition government of Liberals and Conservatives had accomplished a lot, but infighting and massive egos destroyed the partnership. The public were looking for something very different, and they found it with Bennett and Social Credit. 

Sturko, as a former RCMP officer, could well highlight the deep unhappiness with the cost of the police transition in the 10 ÐÔÊӽ紫ý ridings. Taxpayers who just received their ÐÔÊӽ紫ý property tax bills (which have gone up substantially) may be more than ready to vent their displeasure against NDP candidates — two of whom are also former ÐÔÊӽ紫ý RCMP officers. 

It is far too early to predict the BC Conservatives will have enough votes to win any seats in ÐÔÊӽ紫ý. If they can, a much-weakened NDP government or even a minority parliament situation is possible. It’s all up to the voters.

Frank Bucholtz writes every second week for Black Press Media publications.